introduction	Assembly powers
1. PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS

Given the divergent views in Wales about the role of the National Assembly ("NAW"), a strong case can be made for identifying and evaluating a full range of options with respect to the Assembly’s powers and electoral arrangements. The Commission’s work provides a much needed opportunity to increase public understanding of the role that NAW can be expected to play in the governance of Wales. Its recommendations will carry greater weight if the case for them is explicitly demonstrated to be stronger than that for each of the alternative options.

Public Consultation

In our view, the Commission’s findings must be, and must be seen to be, grounded in hard evidence and to follow from a full consideration of the options of change and their likely implications. However, the significance of the Commission’s work for the future governance of Wales is such that every effort should be made to engage the public’s interest and participation. Our experience suggests that many in Wales have little understanding of the nature and effectiveness of the present devolution arrangements.
We are strongly recommend that to enable evidence to be sought from the public an issues paper should be published that provides information about the way the system works, the shortcomings perceived under the present arrangements and the possible options for change and related issues. Without such a starting point, we have concerns that the public evidence may not provide information about problems attributable to the devolution settlement that are experienced by those outside government, or will often be unfocused or fail to address the issues that the Commission regards as important to its work.
We suggest that the quality of evidence is likely to be enhanced if a range of consultative techniques is used in addition to the conventional device of public meetings/hearings. The following have been employed to good effect in other inquiries:
	A website through which the Commission can publish relevant information and documents.
	On-line consultations (of the kind pioneered by the Hansard Society).
	Opinion polls, in particular to ascertain public attitudes towards the present arrangements and possible alternative options.
	Focus groups.
	To gain a comparative and outward-looking perspective, consultations at the Scottish Parliament and if possible at a Commonwealth legislature, for example an Australian State or Canadian Provincial Parliament.

Policy Analysis and Assessment

As with any other circumstances when major change is under consideration, the issues before the Commission involve difficult questions of policy that call for systematic analysis. The kinds of question typically asked these days in carrying out a policy analysis are set out in Appendix 1.

The Commission’s two main areas of inquiry – Assembly powers and electoral arrangements - are most obviously interconnected when the numbers of AMs are under review. A case exists for an increase in numbers in NAW as presently operating, but the extent of any increase may differ from one option to another. In principle, therefore, different electoral arrangements could come into consideration if differing numbers are thought necessary to give effect to individual options. Beyond the question of size, the terms of reference call for consideration of the extension of proportionality in the Assembly’s composition, an objective that can be achieved in more than one way. Arguably, therefore, a separate policy analysis should be undertaken for each of these two topics.

However, we suggest that consideration of electoral arrangements may benefit if substantially postponed until the Commission has reached settled views about its treatment of the matter of Assembly powers. Questions of capacity to perform prescribed functions, changes in size and mode of election are more readily addressed if changes to the Assembly’s functions have already been formulated.

External Research

We strongly urge the commissioning of independent research to enable the Commission to make soundly grounded and substantiated recommendations and to ensure that the implications of those recommendations have been fully identified and relevant information provided. In our view a number of areas within the Commission’s terms of reference merit investigation by means of properly designed projects conducted by experienced researchers e.g. from the academic community or well-respected think tanks. We have listed our suggestions for these in Appendix 2.