Assembly

Appendix 1

3. ELECTORAL ARRANGEMENTS
What precisely is the situation or problem that requires attention?
Other than the question of size of the NAW membership and its effect on the electoral system, the Commission is asked to consider "the adequacy of the electoral arrangements" and, in particular, " … whether the means of electing the Assembly, including the degree of proportionality, adequately and accurately represents all significant interests in Wales".
In what respects do the current electoral arrangements impair the operation of NAW as a democratically elected and representative institution? Is there an issue relating to shortcomings in quality and experience in those who were elected in 1999? Are larger numbers likely to lead to the increased numbers of high quality AMs and of those qualified to hold Ministerial positions? Is this an issue as to whether established political parties are represented in proportion to the strength of their electoral support? Or is this also a question of whether the provisions of GWA as they apply to individual (or non-party) candidates⁷ are inadequate to enable representatives of other interest groups to gain election? Is it the case that there are significant interests that are not, but should be, represented? What are these groups: political, regional, language, ethnic, gender, disabled, young or old, business, farming, legal, medical, public sector employees?
What are the objectives and desired results that are to be sought?
The nature of the objectives is dependent upon satisfactory answers to the first question. For example, the objective will be markedly different if the issue relates to encouraging the election of persons without party ties from if the issue relates to proportionality of registered parties. The Commission may find help from the criteria advocated by the Scottish Constitutional Convention for choosing an appropriate electoral system:
	It produces results in which the number of seats for various parties is broadly related to the number of votes cast for them.
	It ensures, or at least takes effective positive action to bring about, equal representation of men and women, and encourages fair representation of ethnic and other minority groups.
	It preserves a link between members and their constituencies.
	It is as simple as possible to understand.
	It ensures adequate representation of less populous areas.
	It is designed to place the greatest possible power in the hands of the electorate⁸.
What options are available for achieving those objectives and results?
Again, the range of options is likely to be affected by the objectives sought as well as any recommended increase in numbers. Options that may need to be considered include the following:
No change: this is not a feasible option if the number of AMs is to be increased, since the Government of Wales Act as presently drafted does not practically allow for any increase.⁹
Increase the number of constituency seats: amendment of GWA either to increase the number of constituencies or to require two AMs to be returned for each existing constituency. Under this option, neither the mode of election nor the number regional AMs would be altered.
Increase the number of regional seats: amendment of GWA either to increase the number of AMs to be returned for each region or to require the total increased number to be determined nationally. Under this option, neither the mode of election nor the number of constituency AMs would be altered.
Increase the numbers of both constituency and regional seats: amendment of GWA in one of the forms indicated in 2) and 3). Under this option, the mode of election would not be altered.
Replace the existing additional member system by a different electoral system: amendment of GWA to enable the increased numbers to be elected under new electoral arrangements for all seats, for example:
	First past the post system.
	Single transferable vote system
	National party list system.
	Alternative vote system.

The Sunderland Commission on Local Government Electoral Arrangements in Wales, after examining seven alternative systems, recommended the adoption of STV for local government elections.¹⁰

What structural or institutional changes will be required with respect to each option?
Amendment of the Government of Wales Act is unavoidable if numbers are to be increased, though the extent of the necessary changes will differ between options. However, the present linkage with the Parliamentary constituencies is particularly vulnerable. Obviously alteration of the system of election will have implications for bodies responsible for organising and administering elections in Wales.
What gains in terms of effectiveness and efficiency are anticipated for each option?
Some assessment should be attempted of the impact that the various options might be expected to have in the make-up of the Assembly membership, especially with respect to gender and ethnicity and in attracting candidates with a wider range of experience and qualities.
What are the likely costs (for example, in terms of human resources and budget) of each option and are they proportionate to the benefits that are anticipated under that option?
Again, some assessment should be made of the comparative costs of the options, in particular whether any is inherently more expensive to administer. It is unlikely than any will be found to be so expensive as to outweigh perceived gains in terms of improved representation.
What consequences, direct and indirect, desired or undesired, are anticipated for each option?
Among the consequences that may need consideration are:
	The implications of changes in the electoral system for the political parties in Wales.
	Weakening or removal of the relationship between the majority of AMs and a constituency.
	De-linking constituency seats from the Parliamentary seats, which may give rise to issues concerning the number of seats at Westminster, generally considered to be disproportionately large in population terms.
How acceptable to the public and affected groups in the community is each option?
The Sunderland Commission has already received evidence of this kind in so far as local government elections are concerned.¹¹ While that will no doubt be helpful to the Commission, the difference in the level of government and the possibility that one option may lead to the establishment of a legislative body for Wales suggest that the attitudes of the public and political parties in particular should be examined.
What methods of gathering required information on these matters (including consultation with the public and with interested bodies) should be used?
Reference has been made above in the Preliminary Considerations to the desirability of selecting appropriately from a variety of consultation techniques and to the value of well-designed research projects. The Commission may wish to consider the desirability of separate consultation on electoral arrangements, especially if, as suggested earlier, consideration of this matter is deferred until that of Assembly powers is well advanced. Suggestions for the research projects are set out in Appendix 2.
After assessment, which of the options appears likely to be most effective in achieving the objectives and results?
⁷ Sections 4-7. ⁸ Scottish Constitutional Convention, Towards Scotland’s Parliament, 1990. Useful objectives are also set out by the Commission on Local Government Electoral Arrangements in Wales, Improving Local Democracy in Wales, 2002, para.6.4. ⁹ GWA, section 2 & Schedule 1. Since the number of constituency seats is determined by the number of Parliamentary constituencies and the number of regional seats is determined by reference to the number of constituency seats, theoretically both could increase in the improbable event that additional Welsh MPs are to be provided for. ¹⁰Report, above, Chapter 6 and Appendix 9. ¹¹ Report, above, Chapter 3.